MEMO #3: Misinformation Spillover from the United States

Résumé analytique

Mistrust of the voting system is growing among Canadian voters, particularly on the political right, as misinformation trends from the 2020 U.S. election find sympathetic ears among Canadians. Based on a Media Ecosystem Observatory survey of 5,482 Canadians (August 23 to September 13, 2021) and monitoring of 7,424,353 election-related tweets (August 15 to September 14) plus ethnographic research across Facebook, TikTok, Telegram, and 4chan, the Canadian Election Misinformation Project investigated false and misleading claims about the integrity of the 2021 federal election and their impact on Canadian attitudes.

Many Canadians have basic misconceptions about how the federal voting system works: only 29 percent of those surveyed knew that all votes are counted by hand by Elections Canada officials, 13 percent incorrectly believed votes were counted only by machines, 34 percent believed ballots were counted both by hand and by machine, and 24 percent did not know how ballots were counted. Conspiracy theories about Dominion voting machines, echoing narratives from the U.S. 2020 election, have surfaced in Canada, including from political candidates. Sixteen times the normal number of mail-in ballots were ordered for this election, and trust in the method is low and sharply partisan: 27 percent of respondents believe mail-in voting is less trustworthy than in-person voting, while 56 percent believe it is equally trustworthy. Distrust is highest among People's Party of Canada supporters (66 percent found mail-in ballots less trustworthy, versus 22 percent equally trustworthy), compared to much higher trust among Liberal (68 percent), NDP (60 percent), Bloc Québécois (51 percent), and Conservative (48 percent) supporters. Intent to vote by mail follows the same pattern, ranging from 15.7 percent of NDP supporters down to 5.7 percent of People's Party supporters.

Vote-based misinformation, including Dominion-machine conspiracies, circulated across Twitter, Facebook, TikTok, Telegram, and 4chan, with the greatest density on 4chan's /pol/ and QAnon-affiliated Telegram channels. Elections Canada and media coverage promoting mail-in voting have not effectively countered these misperceptions, which the memo warns pose a lasting threat to confidence in the Canadian electoral process.