Prospective Economic Costs Undermine Expectations of Social Distancing

Résumé analytique

Participation in social distancing can be seen as a contribution to a public good, influenced by the marginal costs and benefits of contributing and by expectations that other citizens will participate. The authors test this theory using an official government economic report on job loss as an exogenous, negative information shock. Using Canadian data, they show that this shock increased aggregate-level mobility and reduced self-reported social distancing among respondents surveyed throughout the pandemic (N=17,539), especially among younger respondents, a group facing higher costs relative to benefits of compliance.

Three survey experiments on nationally representative samples further unpack a possible mediating effect of expectations of others' participation. These results reinforce the principal findings, while also showing that information on prospective economic cost reduces expectations of compliance by other citizens, and that expectations of compliance by others cause expectations of respondents' own compliance.

Points saillants

• An official government economic report on pandemic job losses caused an increase in aggregate mobility and reduced self-reported social distancing in the MEO panel survey (N=17,539), functioning as an exogenous negative information shock.
• Effects were strongest among younger Canadians, who face higher economic costs relative to the health benefits of social distancing compliance.
• Three survey experiments confirm the mediating mechanism: economic cost information reduces expectations that other citizens will comply, and these expectations of others compliance causally shape respondents own compliance intentions.
• The findings reframe pandemic compliance as a public goods dilemma where cost-benefit calculations and reciprocity expectations drive voluntary behaviour.
• Communication strategies that emphasize economic costs should be carefully framed to avoid undermining compliance expectations, particularly among cost-sensitive demographic groups.