(Mis)information, Polarization, and Trust in Elections: Longitudinal Evidence from Canada

Executive Summary

Scholars have suggested that we are experiencing a global crisis in trust in elections, with political polarization and misinformation often cited as reasons for distrust. However, empirical evaluations of perceptions of election integrity over time remain scarce. Using data from the Canadian Election Study from 2008 to 2021 and the Media Ecosystem Observatory from 2021, we show that trust in electoral management bodies, measured in terms of confidence, satisfaction, and fairness, has significantly declined since 2019 among Canadians with a right-wing ideology or who support right-wing parties. We find evidence that rising affective polarization, right-wing and social media consumption, and belief in US-based election fraud narratives are associated with significant trust declines in electoral integrity. The results identify key factors linked to the recent politicization of citizens’ perceptions of election fairness and have important implications for the health of our democracy.