Mass Polarization in Canada: What’s Causing It? Why Should We Care?

Executive Summary

There is growing concern among governments, civil society groups, journalists, and academics that democratic societies, including Canada's, are under stress through twin pressures of polarization and institutional dissatisfaction. This concern reflects Canada's close cultural and geographic proximity to the United States, whose democratic institutions and social fabric have been under considerable strain, but it also reflects recent Canadian trends, including debate over COVID-19 policy, the Ottawa blockade, the apparent rise of populist conservatism under Pierre Poilievre's leadership of the Conservative Party, and the staying power of the People's Party of Canada.

The scale, scope, and nature of polarization in Canada demands closer scrutiny, since there is not a clear-cut story as to whether Canada is truly polarizing like the United States; the answer depends on how one conceptualizes polarization and the survey measures used to evaluate it. Eric Merkley's report has three objectives, using original survey data he collected together with the Canadian Election Study (CES). First, it provides an overview of the state of polarization in Canada, addressing whether Canada is polarizing, on what dimensions, and by how much, distinguishing ideological from affective polarization. Second, it evaluates possible consequences of polarization, with a particular focus on affective polarization, the increasing hostility of political partisans towards their least preferred political party and its supporters, and its implications for democratic health. Third, it evaluates possible causes of Canadian polarization, and closes with concluding thoughts on lessons learned and paths forward for future research on Canadian polarization.

Survey evidence shows Canadians are increasingly hostile across party lines even where ideological differences remain modest, a pattern with important consequences for democratic politics.